The winners didn’t just squeak by. Last month, South Korea’s Lee Myung Bak crushed the ruling-party candidate by more than 20 percent, despite allegations of stock manipulation against him. A proxy party for Thailand’s former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra also won big, even though Thaksin had to campaign from exile in London, having been overthrown by the military and charged with using his office for sweetheart deals. And South Africa’s Jacob Zuma beat Thabo Mbeki for the leadership of the African National Congress, making him heir apparent for the presidency—despite claims he’d pocketed $170,000 from a French arms maker (he’s since been formally indicted). In each case, the loser’s record was cleaner. Yet it didn’t help.
There are several reasons voters embraced the accused. Thaksin, for example, is seen as a democratic champion of the poor, who dismiss his charges as cooked up by the junta. Still, this string of victories came in a year that, according to Transparency International (TI), was corruption’s worst on record. In Asia, for example, 22 percent of those polled reported having had to pay a bribe in the past 12 months, up from 15 percent in 2006. In Africa the figure was 46 percent.
Many voters sensed this turn: TI reports that as incidents of corruption grew more common, so did expectations of it. Worldwide, 54 percent now expect corruption to increase in the future, up from 43 percent in 2003. That figure is 47 percent in South Korea, 66 percent in Thailand and 67 percent in South Africa. Overall, only one in five respondents thinks things will improve. How do these numbers connect to the elections? One disturbing possibility is that graft and bribery are now so common in developing nations that voters suspect all candidates are tainted, which neutralizes corruption as an election issue. But such cynicism is dangerous: while a few countries like Bangladesh or China have managed to boom despite serious corruption, it has held back many other states, choking business and deterring investment. Yet voters continue to look the other way. The next big test: Taiwan, where Ma Ying-Jeou is challenging the ruling party’s Frank Hsieh. Both have been accused of corruption, though the charges against Hsieh seem more likely to stick. Which means, if recent history is any guide, he’s where the smart money is betting. —Jonathan Tepperman
Leaders: Separated at Birth? In some ways Silvio Berlusconi and Walter Veltroni are alike. Berlusconi, Italy’s opposition leader and former prime minister, once worked as a cruise-ship crooner and writes love songs. Veltroni, Rome’s mayor and potential future prime minister, did movie voice-overs and writes romance novels. But politically they are opposites. Berlusconi, 68, is an old warhorse, a hawkish conservative. Veltroni, 52, is ascendant in Italian politics and a dovish liberal. So it was a surprise when they recently confessed that they had secretly teamed up to try to diminish the power of Italy’s many small parties, which stymie the political process. A reform could lead to something akin to a two-party system in which the two men face one another. While the plan is a long shot, the two are pushing forward, earning the mayor a new nickname: Veltrusconi. If the reform happens, it would be a big step toward modernizing the creaky political structure that is holding back change in Italy. —Barbie Nadeau
Crisis Watch: Fear Of Japan Flu Will America catch Japan’s malady? Plunging real-estate values, rising bad debts and slowing growth despite cheap money are reminding many commentators of Japan as it entered the “Lost Decade” of the 1990s. Critics like Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, and Yale economist Robert Shiller say the Bush plan to defer the pain of the subprime debacle echoes the way Japan failed to confront its debts.
True, fear of a Japan scenario seems odd in America, which has proved itself virtually shock-proof in recent decades. In a new report, RBC Capital Markets takes a stab at the growing paranoia, noting that while U.S. house prices are off 7 percent from the 2007 peak, that “pales into insignificance next to the Japanese Bubble,” which saw prices plunge 20 percent or more.
The Japanese banking crisis also came after seven years of weak growth, while the United States was growing robustly as recently as last fall. America’s budget deficit is also less of a burden—2.8 percent of GDP—or about half of Japan’s burden in 1996. RBC argues that U.S. bankers are more accountable, and its central bankers more aggressive, than peers in Japan, where a culture of shame and caution let the crisis fester.
Still, even a doubter like RBC says there’s about a one-in-three chance that the United States could still go the way of Japan, which is pretty scary, given that Japan’s sluggish phase lasted 17 years. —Rana Foroohar
Medicine: No Silent Treatment Smut isn’t the only thing that sells well online. STD treatments also trade briskly in the anonymous e-commerce world, where the afflicted can avoid the shame of being spotted at a local clinic. The problem, says a new study from Britain’s University of East Anglia, is that do-it-yourself remedies are often unregulated, untested—and unclear about the side effects. Researchers found 52 U.K. and U.S. vendors selling 77 dubious medications, many claiming natural or herbal ingredients, to treat genital warts, herpes and gonorrhea. More than half promised results, but hardly any offered evidence of effectiveness beyond breathless testimonials—misleading because many STDs have periods during which they show no symptoms. “You think you’ve treated yourself,” says the study’s coauthor, Dr. Roberto Vivancos, “but the infection is still there, silent.” Worse, fewer than a quarter of the remedies offered advice on how to avoid reinfection or infecting others. Fewer than one in 10 recommended seeing a doctor. “There are no alternative treatments shown to be effective,” says Vanessa Cullins, VP for medical affairs at Planned Parenthood. You might be better off sticking to smut. —Roxana Popescu
Dining: Gratuitous Technology Americans are obsessed with saving time, but there are some things we still haven’t streamlined. Like sit-down dining. In many restaurants in Europe, a waiter brings the check along with a panini-size wireless device, and customers swipe their own credit cards. It’s a rare example of the world’s outpacing the land that invented the drive-through. Now American eateries are starting to play catch-up. National chains like Hooters and Legal Sea Foods have been experimenting with wireless credit-card readers for months. Legal Sea Foods aims to be entirely pay-at-table by 2009. B.R. Guest Restaurants, owner of 17 upscale eateries in New York, Chicago and Las Vegas, recently launched its own pilot program. By next year, says Tanya Steele, editor of Epicurious.com, “I think you’ll see them at mid- and even high-end restaurants.”
Economically, it’s a no-brainer. European data show that the scanners actually increase tips by 9 percent, because preset tip buttons ensure that servers aren’t shorted by sloppy math. Another benefit of scanners: they reduce the risk of identity theft. “The restaurant business is one of the only industries left where a person takes your credit card and disappears,” says Roger Berkowitz, president of Legal Sea Foods. If only those machines could pick up the tab, too. —Tony Dokoupil
On (And Off) the Job: Quit While You’re Ahead Nicole Kidman is one of Hollywood’s most dedicated actresses—to quitting. She did it again last week. How her most recent excuse stacks up to the others:
2002 ‘Panic Room’ Excuse: Knee injury Replaced by: Jodie Foster
2005 ‘Mr. and Mrs. Smith’ Excuse: Reshooting “Stepford Wives” Replaced by: Angelina Jolie
2005 ‘The Producers’ Excuse: Doesn’t have time to rehearse Replaced by: Uma Thurman
2008 ‘The Reader’ Excuse: I’m pregnant Replaced by: Kate Winslet
